Regular conditional probability distribution #
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We define the regular conditional probability distribution of Y : α → Ω
given X : α → β
, where
Ω
is a standard Borel space. This is a kernel β Ω
such that for almost all a
, cond_distrib
evaluated at X a
and a measurable set s
is equal to the conditional expectation
μ⟦Y ⁻¹' s | mβ.comap X⟧
evaluated at a
.
μ⟦Y ⁻¹' s | mβ.comap X⟧
maps a measurable set s
to a function α → ℝ≥0∞
, and for all s
that
map is unique up to a μ
-null set. For all a
, the map from sets to ℝ≥0∞
that we obtain that way
verifies some of the properties of a measure, but in general the fact that the μ
-null set depends
on s
can prevent us from finding versions of the conditional expectation that combine into a true
measure. The standard Borel space assumption on Ω
allows us to do so.
The case Y = X = id
is developed in more detail in probability/kernel/condexp.lean
: here X
is
understood as a map from Ω
with a sub-σ-algebra to Ω
with its default σ-algebra and the
conditional distribution defines a kernel associated with the conditional expectation with respect
to m
.
Main definitions #
cond_distrib Y X μ
: regular conditional probability distribution ofY : α → Ω
givenX : α → β
, whereΩ
is a standard Borel space.
Main statements #
cond_distrib_ae_eq_condexp
: for almost alla
,cond_distrib
evaluated atX a
and a measurable sets
is equal to the conditional expectationμ⟦Y ⁻¹' s | mβ.comap X⟧ a
.condexp_prod_ae_eq_integral_cond_distrib
: the conditional expectationμ[(λ a, f (X a, Y a)) | X ; mβ]
is almost everywhere equal to the integral∫ y, f (X a, y) ∂(cond_distrib Y X μ (X a))
.
Regular conditional probability distribution: kernel associated with the conditional
expectation of Y
given X
.
For almost all a
, cond_distrib Y X μ
evaluated at X a
and a measurable set s
is equal to
the conditional expectation μ⟦Y ⁻¹' s | mβ.comap X⟧ a
. It also satisfies the equality
μ[(λ a, f (X a, Y a)) | mβ.comap X] =ᵐ[μ] λ a, ∫ y, f (X a, y) ∂(cond_distrib Y X μ (X a))
for
all integrable functions f
.
Equations
- probability_theory.cond_distrib Y X μ = (measure_theory.measure.map (λ (a : α), (X a, Y a)) μ).cond_kernel
Instances for probability_theory.cond_distrib
For almost every a : α
, the cond_distrib Y X μ
kernel applied to X a
and a measurable set
s
is equal to the conditional expectation of the indicator of Y ⁻¹' s
.
The conditional expectation of a function f
of the product (X, Y)
is almost everywhere equal
to the integral of y ↦ f(X, y)
against the cond_distrib
kernel.
The conditional expectation of a function f
of the product (X, Y)
is almost everywhere equal
to the integral of y ↦ f(X, y)
against the cond_distrib
kernel.
The conditional expectation of a function f
of the product (X, Y)
is almost everywhere equal
to the integral of y ↦ f(X, y)
against the cond_distrib
kernel.
The conditional expectation of Y
given X
is almost everywhere equal to the integral
∫ y, y ∂(cond_distrib Y X μ (X a))
.